Real Estate Pulse - Q2 2026
Stable performance as uncertainty rises
US commercial real estate (CRE) delivered stable returns in the first quarter, according to NCREIF-Expanded Index metrics, with the benchmark one-year NCREIF National Property Index (NPI) holding steady and posting a total return of 4.9% for a second quarter in a row.
Key takeaways
- Property appreciation was slightly positive after flat appreciation in the fourth quarter of 2025. Retail and industrial were the strongest sectors followed by residential, with office still lagging.
- The pace of transactions increased at a solid pace and property pricing edged up. On balance, first-quarter results demonstrate an ongoing CRE cycle upswing, albeit at a subdued pace.
- US macroeconomic growth at a 1.6% rate for real GDP supported the first-quarter CRE performance despite very weak employment growth and higher inflation and interest rates than expected.
- The ongoing US war with Iran intensifies uncertainty surrounding future CRE performance, with prospects dependent on how high oil and other commodity prices go and how long they stay elevated.
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