22 Apr 2026
19 min read

Investment Outlook | Q2 2026

AI Lights

The disruption that markets still aren’t pricing

The recent oil shock has reminded investors that geopolitics can still move markets sharply. But unless higher energy prices persist long enough to become a genuine demand shock, the more important US theme for the next phase of the cycle is likely to come from elsewhere. Artificial intelligence is moving beyond capital spending and into competitive pressure, a disruption that we see as a more enduring headwind for markets than currently priced in.  

Additional highlights 

  • As the second quarter kicks off, uncertainty abounds, but we still see compelling relative value opportunities across the investment landscape. 
  • Rising yields are creating more opportunities to capture durable income in high-quality fixed income assets, in our view. 
  • We find listed infrastructure to be a particularly compelling opportunity within equities. 

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Diversification is supposed to be the only free lunch, but when historical relationships—like the traditionally inverse one between bond and stock prices—break down, public pensions must look at what else is on the menu. This roadmap may help.

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Borrowing Brilliance – Advantages in Fixed Income Portable Alpha

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While we are generally supportive of portable alpha, clearly not all implementations are created equal. Partnering with a portable alpha manager who intimately understands the trade-offs inherent in the approach may afford distinct advantages for retaining as much outperformance as possible for the overall portfolio.

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